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Leading up to the November election, forecasters predicted that Republican incumbent David Valadao would win the 21st Congressional District. The District includes all of Kings County, and parts of Fresno, Tulare, and Kern Counties. It wasn’t until last week, as vote counts were finalized, that the race was decided in favor of Democrat TJ Cox. “We kind of flagged it as a potential upset,” says Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “That said, I ultimately was pretty surprised that Valadao ended up losing.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball produces political analysis and forecast from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Its forecast for the district was, “Leans Republican,” meaning it might be a close race, but one likely to end in Republican candidate Valadao’s favor. “He is someone who people on both sides seem to thinks was in decent shape,” says Kondik. In the 21st District, the majority of voters are registered Democrats. Despite that, the District has voted for
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