12

Timber (Grass and Understory)
Timber (Litter and Understory)
Short Grass (1 foot)

North exposure, ridge tops, and valley bottoms are dominated with timber and understory brush, while south exposures in the valley are dominated by short grass. Slope reversals are common, resulting in fast uphill runs and spotting from ridge tops. Solar radiation has a profound effect on fire progression and resistance to control.

GR2, SH2, and TL8 are being used for analysis.

Active
Running
Spotting
Single Tree Torching

Fire is established in the Davis and Swamp Creek drainages. The corduroy nature of the valley bottom provides for simultaneous backing, flanking, and slope reversals initiating uphill runs. Torching trees at ridge lines are producing spot fires to the east, south, and north. Maximum spotting distance thus far has been within ¼ mile.

Attempt to anchor the SW and NW corners off Hwy 3 using direct and indirect line with Heavy Equipment and handline. Progress along the eastern boundary with equipment and crews to contain the fire protecting structures and values at risk. Conduct structure protection assessments along northern and eastern flanks, where there are expected fire growth impacts. If these actions are unsuccessful, operations will have to fall back to identified secondary containment features risking large fire growth and a long-term fire.

Div C- Secure Hwy 3 and work across northern flank with a direct and indirect tactics, utilizing tactical firing opportunities to reduce fire growth to the north. Heavy aircraft support is necessary to support limited ground resources efforts to prevent large fire movement into difficult and inaccessible terrain to the north.

Div J – Anchor the southern portion of the fire at Hwy 3 with direct and indirect tactics, utilizing tactical firing to reduce fire growth to the south and east. Heavy use of aircraft will be necessary to support limited ground resource efforts to prevent fire growth and impacts to structures and other values at risk.

12 hours: Dry overnight conditions will support moderate to active surface fire spread. Torching trees with spotting is expected to the north, south and east due to the unpredictable north/south valley induced wind direction.

24 hours: Critical fire weather conditions will persist for at least the next week. The fire is expected to progress north, south and east due to inaccessibility issues.

48 hours: Critical fire weather conditions will persist for at least the next week. The fire is expected to progress north, south and east due to inaccessibility issues.

72 hours: Critical fire weather conditions will persist for at least the next week. The fire is expected to progress north, south and east due to inaccessibility issues.

Anticipated after 72 hours: Critical fire weather conditions will persist for at least the next week. The fire is expected to progress north, south and east due to inaccessibility issues.

Skies were mostly cloudy through early afternoon on Wednesday, but temperatures, humidities and winds were running like Tuesday. Skies will begin to clear late in the afternoon, and high temperatures will be in the lower 90s with humidities of 15-20%. Winds will be slightly stronger with gusts up to 12mph from the north late this afternoon through evening.

Expect fairly light, slope driven winds, moderate humidity recoveries and partly cloudy skies Wednesday night.

Thursday will be mostly sunny, hotter, drier and even more unstable through mid-afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form to the southwest in the late afternoon and may affect the fire by evening. Wetting rain is possible if storms go right over the fire, but lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds may affect the fire even if storms do not hit directly.